Egypt

Watching the events unfold in Egypt over the last couple of weeks puts me in mind of the old saying that the written Chinese character is the same for both “crisis” and “opportunity.” This peaceful revolution, fueled by massive discontent at all levels of Egyptian society, has swept away the Mubarek administration. Whether this is the start of true regime change, or merely a shuffling of faces at the top remains to be seen.

It was interesting to watch the waffling and sail trimming of the Obama administration as events unfolded. If you don’t have any influence on a situation, and you don’t have a clue as to how it is going to turn out, it is probably best if you keep your mouth shut about things, for fear of inserting your own foot. Aside from philosophical support for democracy in general, and the basic human right of peaceable assembly in particular, US policy should have been that this was an internal Egyptian matter, end of comment.

Much of the discontent with the Mubarek regime was driven by economic issues, both of the middle class and of the poor. By some estimates, half of the recent college graduates in the country are unemployed. Among the poor, the desperation and despair are even sharper.

Egypt does not produce enough food to feed its 79 million people. As a food importer, the country has been buffeted rises in commodity prices over the last year. In America, when wheat prices double, a family’s grocery bill goes up five or six dollars a week. In Egypt, when wheat prices double, people who were spending 50% of their income on food are now spending 100% of their income on food. When a large percentage of your population goes to sleep hungry at night, that is a recipe for political instability.

My take on things is that the mandate of the new government will be to create huge numbers of new jobs, while simultaneously lifting incomes and guaranteeing subsidence for the bottom 30% of the populace. And, oh yeah, you’ve got to do this fast, before the euphoria wears off and things turn ugly again.

Sometimes the crisis outweighs the opportunity.