Where did the oil go?

A panel of experts from the Interior Department and NOAA has released a report today estimating that 74% of the oil that gushed into the Gulf of Mexico from the damaged BP oil well is already gone. About 20% of the spill was skimmed from the surface, or collected by BP and burned off in “flaring” operations.

Where did the rest of the oil go? Apparently a lot of it simply evaporated. A large portion of the oil was “bioremediated.” That’s a fancy word that means bacteria in the water are eating the oil, breaking it down into water and carbon dioxide. This is a natural process that has been greatly accelerated, both by summer storms moving through the Gulf, and by the enormous amounts of chemical dispersants dumped on the oil slick by BP. The dispersants break up the oil into teeny tiny droplets. The more surface area, the more the bacteria can get at the oil.

It is not a bad idea to be skeptical about these kinds of announcements. How did they get to 74%? Why not 71%, or 76%? Still, this is not BP’s estimate. This is a theoretically independent government panel. They’ve got no reason to low ball the amount of oil left to be cleaned up.

If this is true, it is an extraordinary claim. The implication is that in light of what is widely claimed as the worst environmental disaster in the nation’s history, three quarters of the problem was cleaned up in real time. They haven’t finished cementing the well shut yet, and 74% of the oil is already gone.

If the efforts of both man and nature continue at this rate (unlikely), the oil spill will be gone by the end of hurricane season. The oil that has already hit beaches and marshes will still have to be cleaned up, and I’m sure that somebody is going to have to scoop up tar balls that float ashore for years to come. However, it begins to look like the worst of this mess is already behind us.

BP has been widely excoriated for not having a plan in place to deal with the situation ahead of time. I think people have been selling the company short. They have brought enormous resources to bear in a remarkably short time, and that huge effort seems to be working. The media has underestimated what the can-do attitude of Americans can accomplish, when faced with an emergency, and backed up by a butt load of money.