Green Shoots and Other Images

Last week, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he detected “green shoots” among the economic indicators he tracks. A nice metaphor for seeing signs of recovery from the current economic malaise. Beautifully timed to coincide with the annual rebirth of springtime.

At my company, we are also seeing some “green shoots” of our own. After dropping to a level less than half of what it was a year ago, orders from customers have rebounded somewhat. March financial results put us into the black for the year to date, April’s results will be better still, and the sales forecast for May/June is comfortable, if not stupendous.

It is infinitely less stressful to be focused on how much profit we can make, as opposed to having concerns over whether the month will show a profit or a loss. We have shifted over to the positive problem of “How do we make shipments on time with the resources we have?” as opposed to the negative problem of “Who is the next person to get laid off?” I’ve even had to call a few people back off layoff.

My problem is that I can’t confine myself to the springtime “green shoots” metaphor. I come back to other metaphors. Grimmer metaphors.

“We’re not out of the woods yet.” “The other shoe has yet to drop.” “The light at the end of a tunnel is an oncoming train.” “The economy is executing a head fake. It gets you moving one way, then whammo, it turns and goes the other.” “It’s always darkest just before it really goes pitch black.”

My gut feeling is that we are going to hear more bad news before the economy really recovers. So I am keeping cost controls in place, eliminating unnecessary expenses, and watching every hour of overtime like a hawk. I would say “plan for the worst, and hope for the best,” but I think hope is for suckers.

Some say the glass if half full. Some say the glass is half empty. I say the glass has a crack, and the water is running out.

Maybe that's why I don't get invited out much.