Libya: Mission Creep

As part of the “Arab Spring,” the Libyan uprising against the government of Moammar Gadhafi was supposed to be over in only a few weeks, especially after NATO forces used airpower to enforce a no fly zone over the country. It is now almost summer, and there are very few signs of the regime folding its tents and going away. Instead, it now begins to look like NATO is supporting one side in what is shaping up as a civil war between the western and eastern halves of the country.

Of course, NATO’s military involvement has been about much more than just grounding the Libyan air force, right from the get go. Under the guise of a humanitarian mission, NATO aircraft (mostly from France and Britain) have been striking at Gadhafi’s military whenever targets present themselves. However, the fighter aircraft deployed are not the most effective weapon to use for close air support of the rebellion’s ground forces. It is hard to hit scattered artillery pieces when you are moving 500 miles an hour at a height of 2000 feet, even with precision guided munitions. So this week France announced that a force of attack helicopters would be sent to Libya to support the rebellion.

But it would only be twelve choppers. That’s not much of an investment, is it?

Well, not so fast. The twelve helicopters and their crews represent NATO’s fist. But it takes a lot of muscle to drive that fist. First of all, they have to be refueled after every mission, so you need fuel handlers and fuel storage. Second, when the choppers break, you’ve got to fix them, so you need a complement of aircraft mechanics and avionics technicians at the air base. On hot missions you fire off weapons, so you need ordinance personnel to store ammo and reload the guns. And because you need to house and feed all these guys, military units almost always carry their own logistical capability with them when they deploy.

Bottom line, when the politicians talk about sending twelve helicopters, they are really talking about sending a whole unit, a squadron. This means that the French will have about 250 of their airmen involved in the conflict. Once they are on the ground, they become legitimate military targets for Gadhafi’s forces. How much do you want to bet that as soon as the squadron commander sees the half trained militia providing security for his unit, he’ll start lobbying for more troops to protect his air base?

NATO is escalating its forces in Libya. From a US perspective, the only good thing about the situation is that the Obama administration has pushed this mess off onto the Europeans. Because once you start escalation, each incremental step gets easier and easier. And we still have our hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan.