Japan's Nuclear Nightmare

It takes a lot to overshadow a natural disaster that kills 10,000 people in a First World country like Japan. The specter of a nuclear reactor melting down, with a corresponding massive release of radiation will do it, however. The prospect of five nukes blowing up will really focus your attention.

At this point it is impossible to say just how bad the situation at the Japanese nuclear power plant will end up being. The best guess is that it will be somewhere between the US experience at Three Mile Island (small radiation release, no public harm documented), and the Russian experience in Chernobyl (massive radiation release, thousands of deaths attributable to the accident).

Clearly, the contingency planning on the part of Tokyo Electric was fatally flawed. It looks like their earthquake preparation actually worked as intended. At the first tremor, the reactors shut themselves down. The problems seemed to have a root cause in the tsunami that accompanied the earthquake.

Once a reactor of the type in question is shut down, it still needs circulation of cooling water for days afterward to carry away the residual heat of the nuclear reaction. The circulation is done by big, electrically powered pumps. But when the reactor shuts down, it stops generating power for the all important pumps. The design solution is to install diesel powered backup generators on-site. These generators automatically kick in when the reactor shuts down. In the case of the Fukushima Daiichi plant, these diesel generators were located in a low lying area. They, and the switches that route the electricity, were flooded out by the big wave.

In the aftermath of this crisis, we will face a fork in the road with regard to the peaceful use of atomic energy. One path is to decide that nuclear power is too dangerous to use, that the risks are not worth the rewards. People who follow this path will say “See, we listened to the experts, and they were wrong. They promised us it was completely safe, and now there has been a radiation release. We have to shut down all the nuclear power plants right now.”

This appears to be the position of the German government. This week they shut down seven reactors, and plans are afoot to close another ten. Since nuclear power provides about 25% of Germany’s electricity, that will leave a large gap to fill. The Germans are acting as is there is an imminent failure risk, in spite of the fact that Germany is tectonically stable, and has never been known to suffer from tidal waves.

The other path is to learn from this situation, and apply those lessons going forward. There is an old saying that experience is what you get when things go wrong. Plenty has gone wrong at the Fukushima Daiichi power station. But we can learn from the mistakes, whether they be mistakes of planning or of execution.

In light of concerns with global warming and oil depletion, due to the uncertainty of wind and the inability to store solar energy for nighttime use, nuclear power is one of our best bets for a secure, reliable energy future. We can close the systemic gaps revealed by the current Japanese disaster, and strengthen the safety systems going forward. But we have to have the will to face the problems, instead of turning our backs to the technology.

We have Democratic and Republican parties. We have Green parties and Tea parties. I’d like to see a Let’s Keep the Lights On party.