Watching the early returns from Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is projected to win the Democratic primary. No big surprise there. The real question is whether she will win over Barack Obama by a big enough margin to convince Democratic Party superdelegates that they should back her instead of him at the convention later this year. At this point Hillary is extremely unlikely to catch up Barack in the number of ordinary delegates going into the convention.
We may actually see a real live political convention, complete with back room deals, before this is all over. As opposed to the 100% scripted and choreographed lovefests that have taken place every four years for the last few decades.
But tonight I actually want to shift the focus to Florida and Michigan. Last year the state Democratic party apparatus in both states decided to move up their primary without getting approval from national party headquarters. To punish the renegades, and to keep the other states in line, the national party stripped both states of their delegates to the national convention. To hold with party discipline, the candidates agreed not to campaign in either state (well, Hillary did show up in Florida, put she pulled out as soon as she came under sniper fire). Barack Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan. So the fourth and the eighth largest states were shut out of the nominating process.
So why did both Florida and Michigan decide to move their primaries? They did it because the conventional wisdom (which is not the same thing as convention wisdom) was that Super Tuesday would sew up the nomination, back on February 5. After a candidate wins enough primaries to mathematically guarantee the nomination, any primaries after that are moot, and the winning candidate essentially coasts until the general election campaign starts after both parties have their nominating conventions. You haven't seen John McCain buying a lot of television ads in Pennsylvania this month, have you?
Both Florida and Michigan wanted to be "relevant" in the primary season. The party leadership in both states wanted the candidates to campaign (i.e. spend money) in their states, so they risked, and incurred, the wrath of the national headquarters.
The irony here, of course, is that the conventional wisdom was dead wrong. The Democratic nomination wasn't sewed up on Super Tuesday. Not even close. So if Florida and Michigan had left their primaries until March, as originally scheduled, they would have been crucial battleground states for the Democratic nomination. As such, they would have received a ton of attention, and money, from both Clinton and Obama.
Instead, that attention and money have been poured into Pennsylvania for the last month and a half.
For the state party leaders in both states, I guess that it's appropriate that the symbol of the Democratic Party is a donkey.
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3 comments:
Come on now. Why criticize the Democratic Party for attempting to place penalties on states for moving their primaries up in order to capitalize on financial gains made in normal primaries by being one of the first elections held. Something had to be done to deter other states from following. Otherwise, there would be total caos during these elections.
Nor can you blame the decision makers in Florida and Michigan for attempting to capitalize on being one of the first primaries given how hard both of these states have been hit during these recessionary times. (Florida with the housing market and Michigan with lost of manufacturing jobs)
However, the problem arose because none of the decision makers saw the neck to neck race developing between Clinton and Obama. Maybe none of us are that good of a fortune teller.
As far as which Democratic candidate will get the nominee, I believe it is still up for grabs.
If Clinton could continue to win big in the majority of the remaining states and bring the delegate votes even closer, this will really make the process interesting. The Democratic Party must decide which candidate is the most electable. Or better yet, which Democratic ticket is the most electable.
If it could be a Clinton/Obama ticket, then McCain might as well not spend any of the Republican Party's money and just save it for 8 more years!
I don't know if the candidates can tear down the layers of their ego to make this happen, but I am holding out for the possibility.
ieSorry about the typo--chaos.
Interesting comments Jonnie. However I am afraid that I have as much chance at getting the nod as there is a chance of an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket. I also have to dissagree with you on another point. Even if there were an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket for the Dems, they still will not win. The gallup polls that have come out recently have shown Clinton and Obama with ONLY a slight lead over McCain, which says a lot considering McCain isn't doing much in terms of campaigning right now. When he finnaly does, which ever Dem candidate is still standing will be wiped out. This year is is just another clear illustration of how the Democratic Party just can't get it together.
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