Thursday, March 17, 2011

Japan's Nuclear Nightmare

It takes a lot to overshadow a natural disaster that kills 10,000 people in a First World country like Japan. The specter of a nuclear reactor melting down, with a corresponding massive release of radiation will do it, however. The prospect of five nukes blowing up will really focus your attention.

At this point it is impossible to say just how bad the situation at the Japanese nuclear power plant will end up being. The best guess is that it will be somewhere between the US experience at Three Mile Island (small radiation release, no public harm documented), and the Russian experience in Chernobyl (massive radiation release, thousands of deaths attributable to the accident).

Clearly, the contingency planning on the part of Tokyo Electric was fatally flawed. It looks like their earthquake preparation actually worked as intended. At the first tremor, the reactors shut themselves down. The problems seemed to have a root cause in the tsunami that accompanied the earthquake.

Once a reactor of the type in question is shut down, it still needs circulation of cooling water for days afterward to carry away the residual heat of the nuclear reaction. The circulation is done by big, electrically powered pumps. But when the reactor shuts down, it stops generating power for the all important pumps. The design solution is to install diesel powered backup generators on-site. These generators automatically kick in when the reactor shuts down. In the case of the Fukushima Daiichi plant, these diesel generators were located in a low lying area. They, and the switches that route the electricity, were flooded out by the big wave.

In the aftermath of this crisis, we will face a fork in the road with regard to the peaceful use of atomic energy. One path is to decide that nuclear power is too dangerous to use, that the risks are not worth the rewards. People who follow this path will say “See, we listened to the experts, and they were wrong. They promised us it was completely safe, and now there has been a radiation release. We have to shut down all the nuclear power plants right now.”

This appears to be the position of the German government. This week they shut down seven reactors, and plans are afoot to close another ten. Since nuclear power provides about 25% of Germany’s electricity, that will leave a large gap to fill. The Germans are acting as is there is an imminent failure risk, in spite of the fact that Germany is tectonically stable, and has never been known to suffer from tidal waves.

The other path is to learn from this situation, and apply those lessons going forward. There is an old saying that experience is what you get when things go wrong. Plenty has gone wrong at the Fukushima Daiichi power station. But we can learn from the mistakes, whether they be mistakes of planning or of execution.

In light of concerns with global warming and oil depletion, due to the uncertainty of wind and the inability to store solar energy for nighttime use, nuclear power is one of our best bets for a secure, reliable energy future. We can close the systemic gaps revealed by the current Japanese disaster, and strengthen the safety systems going forward. But we have to have the will to face the problems, instead of turning our backs to the technology.

We have Democratic and Republican parties. We have Green parties and Tea parties. I’d like to see a Let’s Keep the Lights On party.

Friday, March 11, 2011

Strategize This!

Embedded into our notion of what “character” means is the concept of consistency. When we talk about a person’s character, to some extent we mean predictability. Your character shapes your response to a changing situation. By knowing someone’s character, we can have confidence in how that individual will react to circumstances. If we speak of someone as brave, we would be surprised if they ran from danger. If we speak of someone as cowardly, the surprise would be if that person stood up to danger.

I bring this up because the Obama administration is behaving out of character with regard to the recent rise in gas prices. The President has made statements indicating that he is considering opening up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and selling oil to bring down gasoline prices.

These comments make me think that the administration is having a hard time with the concept of a “strategic” reserve. Strategy implies a long term orientation. In the case of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, it was established to ensure a US based source of oil in the event of a major supply disruption, like the OPEC oil embargo.

There is no evidence of any supply interruption occurring in today’s situation. There are no shortages of gasoline being reported. Instead, smoothly working market mechanisms have driven up oil pricing in response to the Federal government printing money (the Fed’s quantitative easing II), and geopolitical instability, particularly the civil war in Libya.

I like low gas prices as much as the next guy. But when gas prices go up, I tend to try and find ways to drive less. When pump prices cracked past $3.25 per gallon, we cancelled that tractor pull set up for next week. This is normal market behavior. When the price of a commodity increases, buyers begin to use less of that commodity. Long Sunday drives: bad; long Sunday crossword puzzles: good.

The reason I find the Obama administration’s reaction to high gas prices inconsistent is because they want us to use less gasoline. Internal combustion engines are a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. If you’re opposed to the prospect of global warming, you should celebrate increases in gas prices. Every nickel rise in gasoline prices moves another thousand hybrid vehicles off showroom floors. Pumping oil out of the Reserve to lower gas prices works directly against that situation. So you can see why it appears out of character for this administration.

Unless the true character of the administration is to pander to the voters in every possible way. The President’s statements are perfectly in character with that end.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Politicians on the Lam

Wisconsin’s Democratic state senators are still missing in action. They fled the state a couple of weeks ago to deny a quorum, preventing the incoming Republican majority from passing legislation that would eliminate the right of state employees to bargain for fringe benefits. Since a large chunk of the union dues paid in the state flow directly into Democratic campaign coffers, The Democrats’ desperation to defend their power base, as well as the Republicans’ determination to reduce union power are both understandable.

When the Dems first bolted across the border to Illinois, I appreciated the free entertainment. I enjoy a good piece of political theater as much as the next man, and it was good of our fellow countrymen in the great white north to provide a terrific piece of grandstanding. It reminded me of professional wrestling. The same histrionics. The same larger than life conflicts. And ultimately, the same preordained conclusion. After all, the Republicans had the votes.

By going on the lam, the Democratic senators focused a lot of media attention on the issue. They also bought time to try and swing public support to their side. All well and good, and for the first few days, entertainment value aside, I thought the desertion a legitimate delaying tactic.

That changed when the Democrats realized they could stay away indefinitely, and began issuing demands for their return. They would return to the state capitol, but only if the offending legislation was removed from consideration. That is not only profoundly undemocratic, but it sets a dangerous precedent as well.

Representative democracy is primarily a matter of majority rule. If you get 50% plus one vote on an issue, the gavel comes down, and it is the law. 100% of the citizens must comply. There are two types of exceptions to the rule of the majority. First are rights that are built into the state or Federal constitution. These rights, such as freedom of speech and religion, are unalterable by a majority, no matter how large. A minority of one gets to practice his right of free speech, no matter how repellent that speech is, and 100% of the citizens must allow that. An independent judiciary acts as the safeguard of those rights.

You can also have preset procedural rules requiring a greater than 50% plus one majority for certain purposes. Three quarters of the states have to ratify an amendment to the US constitution. In the US Senate, 60% of the Senators must agree to stop debate before a measure can be voted on. California has a rule that two thirds of the legislature has to approve a tax increase before it can take effect. The key to these procedural safeguards against change are that they must be put in place before they take effect.

What the Wisconsin Democrats are doing is demanding a power be ceded to them, the power to block legislation they don’t like, even though they are in the minority. Regardless of your stand on their objections to the law in question, this tactic is a power grab, plain and simple. It goes beyond partisanship into a tribal level of identity politics.

It also provides a dangerous precedent. Until recently, Wisconsin was a majority Democrat state, with the Republicans in the minority. If, during the Republicans time of ascendency, this refusal to participate actually bears fruit for the Democrats, they will find the taste of that fruit bitter indeed, and sure to prove indigestible.

After all, what is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Should the current Democratic tactics work, then the Republicans will surely adopt them when next the political pendulum swings to the other party.

We will have moved from principled disagreement and potential compromise to the political equivalent of hostage taking.